A new study suggests that global warming could paradoxically plunge Europe into dramatic cooling, leading to severe winter cold spells, more intense storms, and reduced rainfall. Average winter temperatures could plunge, sea ice could spread as far south as the British Isles, and nearly half the year could see temperatures below freezing.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of the most important systems regulating Earth’s climate. Acting like a massive conveyor belt, AMOC moves warm water from the tropics northward and returns colder, denser water back south. This cycle drives weather patterns, moderates temperatures in Europe and North America, and helps maintain ecological and societal stability across much of the planet.
But that stability is under threat.
Due to rising global temperatures and the melting of polar ice, there’s growing scientific concern that the AMOC could weaken significantly - or even collapse entirely. If that happens, the resulting climate chaos could be both severe and long-lasting.
The Consequences of Collapse
To better understand and communicate what could happen if the AMOC collapses a new interactive map has been developed to visualize different scenarios. Built on state-of-the-art climate modeling from the 2025 study European Temperature Extremes under Different AMOC Scenarios in the Community Earth System Model by René van Westen and W. Baatsen, the tool allows users to explore projected regional impacts under different levels of AMOC weakening.
The AMOC Collapse Visualization map is based on a new study European Temperature Extremes under Different AMOC Scenarios in the Community Earth System Model by van Westen & Baatsen (2025). The study uses complex climate simulations to examine a scenario in which AMOC weakens by 80% in a world that is already 2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
In Europe, the cooling effect from a collapsed AMOC could override the general warming trend - creating a landscape of colder winters, more snow and ice, and frequent cold extremes. For example, London could face winter extremes as low as -19°C (-2.2°F), while Oslo might endure temperatures as low as -48°C (-55°F).
In the United States temperatures would generally continue to rise, the eastern seaboard would see the dual threat of sea level rise and stronger winter storms. Elsewhere in the world, the disintegration of oceanic balance could alter tropical monsoons and reduce the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon - a dangerous feedback loop that could accelerate global climate change.