Tuesday, June 29, 2021

London's New Constituencies

The Boundary Commission for England recently released its 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies. This review includes its proposals for changing the parliamentary constituencies in England. Under these proposals the number of constituencies in London will increase from 73 to 75. 

My Gerrymander London map shows the boundaries of the recommended 75 London constituencies. Some of the boundaries for these new recommended electoral areas are significantly changed from the existing constituency boundaries. You can respond to these new recommendations from the Boundary Commission during the consultation period, which lasts until 2nd August 2021. 

On the map each of the recommended constituencies is colored by its Polsby-Popper score. The Polsby-Popper test is a mathematical formula for calculating how compact an electoral district is in order to detect for possible gerrymandering. The general assumption is that the more compact a constituency is the less likely it has been gerrymandered.

Based on my analysis Bethnal Green and Stepney has the highest Polsby-Popper score, so is therefore the constituency which is least likely to have been gerrymandered. Brent Central has the lowest Polsby-Popper score, so it is the constituency in London which is most likely to have been gerrymandered.

On my map I have also tried to calculate which party would be elected in each of the 75 proposed new constituencies. There is very little difference in the average Polsby-Popper scores for each of the three main political parties in London. So although some constituencies, such as Brent Central, are not very compact there is little evidence that the Boundary Commission has attempted to gerrymander London's proposed new constituencies in favor of any of the political parties.

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