How to Guarantee a White Christmas

If you’re determined to experience a white Christmas, I suggest booking a trip to Zermatt, Switzerland. According to White Christmas Forecast 2025, residents there have a 100% chance of snow on Christmas Day. (Disclaimer: I'm not in charge of the weather and previous snowfalls do not guarantee future flurries).

Last week I linked to NOAA’s Probability of a White Christmas map. This map uses historical weather data to estimate the likelihood of experiencing at least one inch of snow at any location in the U.S. on Christmas Day. If you live outside the USA, you can now use the White Christmas Forecast 2025 map to discover your chances of seeing snow on December 25th.

The White Christmas Forecast 2025 map may even provide a more accurate prediction of snow within the USA. Like the NOAA map, it uses historical weather data as part of its forecast model. However, its probability score isn’t just a static historical average. Instead, the White Christmas Forecast 2025 map uses a weighted “blended” model. In early December it leans heavily on the last 20 years of climatology data. As we get within the 16-day forecast window, the app dynamically shifts weight toward a live deterministic forecast and by December 21st, it switches entirely to live radar models.

The UK's White Christmas Forecast 2025 map also uses weather forecast data to predict the likelihood of snow on Christmas Day. This map incorporates forecast data from Open Meteo observation sites across the UK. It then applies a custom algorithm that analyses this weather data a.nd “dynamically adjusts for elevation, coastal influence, and a range of additional environmental features.”

Currently, the UK map suggests that Fort William in Scotland is the most likely location to experience snow. At the moment, it indicates a 50/50 chance of snow in Fort William on Christmas Day. Where I live there is only a 5% chance of snow 😞.