Fallout - Would You Survive a Nuclear War?

In response to a full-scale nuclear attack, America's policy is to spare more populated cities at the expense of the American Heartland. USA Today has published a new interactive map to show you whether you are likely to survive the fallout of such a war.

USA Today’s massive investigative project, The Nuclear Sponge, explores a grim strategic reality: how 450 nuclear missile silos scattered across the Great Plains are designed to act as a "sponge." These silos are intended to absorb an enemy’s first strike, theoretically sparing coastal cities by drawing fire toward the center of the country.

To illustrate the human cost of this strategy, USA Today partnered with nuclear weapons historian Alex Wellerstein¹ and researchers from Princeton, Columbia, and Brown University. The resulting interactive map, Fallout maps show what could happen if America’s nuclear missile silos were attacked, visualizes the aftermath of a concerted attack on these silos with terrifying precision.

How it Works

The map utilizes a Cold War-era model known as WSEG-10 to visualize the average risk of radiation exposure across North America. The researchers ran computer simulations for every single day of 2021 to account for varying weather and wind patterns.

• Lethal Doses: The darker colors on the map represent an average outdoor radiation dose after four days. In areas closest to the silos, these doses exceed 8 Grays (Gy) - a level scientists consider lethal.
• Human Impact: The map specifically highlights seven communities where the Air Force held in-person public hearings regarding the new "Sentinel" missile program, as well as tribal lands of 63 Native American tribes.
• The Findings: According to the simulation, an attack on these "sponge" silos could kill between 1 and 2 million people on average, with radioactive fallout potentially contaminating the food supply for millions more across the US and Canada.

It is a sobering use of geospatial data that turns abstract military strategy into a vivid, terrifyingly local reality.

If you live in the UK or the EU, you probably cannot see this map on USA Today. Instead of conforming to GDPR, the site redirects you to a 'bare-bones' version that lacks interactive features. You can, however, still view the full map on the official Brown/Columbia University project site.

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1. Since 2012 Alex Wellerstein's NUKEMAP has been visualizing the effects of different sized nuclear weapons on locations around the globe.

   NUKEMAP allows you to explore the fireball, airblast and radiation fallout extents of different nuclear weapons on any location in the world. Alex's map can also calculate the estimated number of casualties of a nuclear weapon dropped at any location. This estimation includes the expected number of fatalities and the expected number of injuries.