An Extremely Distorted Map of the US Election

Following the publication of its Extremely Detailed Map of the 2016 Election, the New York Times was widely criticized for visually misrepresenting the election results. Despite this backlash, the newspaper chose to repeat the error after the 2020 election - and has now done so again!

The New York Times recently released its Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election. According to the NYT, the map is still a work in progress, currently displaying results from 73% of all votes cast. Results from some voting precincts are missing but will be added in the coming weeks.

The methodology behind the 2024 map remains unchanged from that used in the original Extremely Detailed Map of the 2016 Election. This decision is surprising, given the widespread criticism the 2016 map received from cartographers and data visualization experts. Cartonerd's Cartographic Hyperbole summarized these critiques into two main points:

1. Use of a choropleth map: The map disproportionately highlights sparsely populated areas, giving them the same visual prominence as densely populated regions.
2. Web Mercator projection: The projection does not maintain equal area, a crucial requirement for accurate visual representation in electoral maps.

The map is undeniably a powerful tool for exploring precinct-level vote counts for each presidential candidate. It also allows users to quickly identify precincts that overwhelmingly voted for one candidate. However, it suffers from the same flaw as its predecessors: it overemphasizes large, rural precincts (which usually vote Republican) , leading to a visually skewed representation of the overall election results.

In the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, Donald Trump secured 49.9% of the vote, narrowly defeating Harris, who garnered 48.4%. Yet, the NYT's 'Extremely Detailed Map' gives the impression of a landslide victory for Trump due to the vast swaths of red representing rural areas. You could almost say that the NYT map creates an extremely distorted view of just how close the 2024 election truly was.