The El Niño Forcast Map

Much has been written about how this year's El Niño is already breaking records. Climate Dashboard's new interactive map lets you explore how this unusually strong El Niño could affect climate conditions around the world, including what it might mean for the weather where you live.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon in which unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific disrupt atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns around the world. These effects can mean wetter conditions in some regions and drought in others.

The El Niño Impacts layer in the Climate Dashboard provides a way to explore what this year's unusually strong El Niño could actually mean around the world. The map shows the predicted rainfall effects for each three-month season, from the current October-December forecast through to seasons ending in May 2027.

Click anywhere around the world to see what the models forecast for that location, season by season, through to May 2027. You can also switch between individual models to see where they agree - and where they don't.

But this isn't just a forecast map. You can compare the predictions with what happened during the eight strongest El Niño events since 1951, from 1957-58 through to 2023-24. Select a past event and the map replays the rainfall impacts, showing whether each region experienced the change that the scientific literature would have expected.

The map therefore combines current forecasts with historical context, allowing you to see what the models expect to happen over the coming seasons and compare those predictions with what actually happened during previous strong El Niño events.