Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Risk Assessment for Attending Events

I suspect that at the moment most of us are blindly trying to assess the risks of every trip we make outside the safety of our homes. One thing I definitely won't be doing any time soon is attending any events with crowds. However if you do intend to visit an event in the United States then you should consult the Covid-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool.

This interactive map, developed by the Georgia Institute of Technology, can provide you with an estimation of how likely you are to catch Covid-19 at an event, given the size of the event and where it is taking place. The map includes an easy to use slide control which allows you to adjust the predicted size of an event. Input the event size using this control and counties on the map will be colored to show the current risk level of attending an event in that county. The risk level shows the estimated chance that at least one COVID-19 positive individual will be present at the event given the size of the event and the rate of Covid-19 in that county.

Obviously if you live in the United States you shouldn't be considering attending events of any size in any county at the present time. If you do use the Covid-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool then hopefully you will agree.

Another way that you can assess your personal risk from Covid-19 is to consult the Harvard Global Health Institute's COVID Risk Level map which shows the severity of the Covid-19 outbreak at county level across the United States. The map reveals which counties have a green, yellow, orange or red risk level, based on the local number of new daily cases.

On the map counties that have fewer than one daily new case of Covid-19 per 100,000 people are colored green. Counties with one to nine daily new cases are colored yellow. Counties with between 10 and 24 new cases are colored orange and counties with 25 new cases per day are shown in red. The map also allows you to view the Covid-19 risk levels at state level. This view shows that both Florida and Arizona are currently at a red risk level, both states having more than 30 new daily cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people.

Alongside the map the Harvard Global Health Institute has released recommendations and guidance about how counties should respond to the Covid-19 outbreak risk levels. If a county is shown as red on the map then stay-at-home orders are absolutely necessary. Counties shown as orange are advised to have stay-at-home orders and test and trace programs. If a county currently has a yellow risk level then a rigorous test and trace program is advised. Counties which are shown as green should continue to monitor with testing and contact tracing.

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