Monday, November 07, 2022

When to Expect the Midterm Election Results

FiveThirtyEight has released an interactive map which provides information on when you can expect each state to count and announce the results of today's election. When Will We Know 2022 Midterm Election Results? includes a cartogram map which allows you to select a U.S. state in order to find out when the polls close in that state, the races to watch in the state and when you can expect the results to be declared.

Each state has different rules on when and how votes are counted. Therefore some states are much quicker at releasing election results than others. According to FiveThirtyEight some states "like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania ... could take multiple days to count all their votes."

The FiveThirtyEight map includes a slide control which allows you to adjust the date and time. This allows you to see which states are expected to have reported results for a selected date and time over the coming days. For example the screenshot above shows (in yellow) all the states who FiveThirtyEight expect to have announced election results by 12 am tomorrow (Nov 9th).

The FiveThirtyEight predictions for state election returns are based on each state's 2020 primary election counting, data received from state election officials and analysis from Edison Research.

Currently the Democratic Party has a very slim majority in the House of Representatives and the Republicans only need to make a net gain of five seats on November 8th.

According to AllSides "Republicans have a 77% chance of taking the U.S. House ... (and the) Democrats have a 52% chance of keeping the U.S. Senate".  In Who Will Control the House and Senate? AllSides has created two interactive maps to show the probable party winner in each electoral district in both the Senate and House elections.

On each AllSides map electoral districts are colored to reflect the party most likely to win in the midterm elections. You can hover over individual electoral districts on either map to see the latest odds based on the AllSides Election Forecast Model. This model "takes into account polls on individual races, national sentiment towards each party, history of past midterm elections ... to estimate the vote share of candidates in a race and the probability that they will win".

FiveThirtyEight suggests that the Republicans have a 7 in 10 chance of regaining the lower chamber. In The Seats Republicans Could Flip To Win The House FiveThirtyEight maps out the districts which are most likely to switch hands in November. Using a hexagonal cartogram, with districts organised by state, they have highligted in red and blue those districts most likely to flip (with the reddest seats most likely to flip to Republicans and the bluest seats most likely to flip to Democrats).

One thing that makes the 2022 midterm elections unique is the unprecedented number of anti-democratic far-right candidates standing for office. According to Political Research Associates there are 274 candidates in the 2022 midterm election cycle who "represent a definable Electoral Far Right". They identify far-right candidates by support for such issues as racial/ethnic nationalism and election denial.

In Mapping The Electoral Far Right in the 2022 Elections Political Reasearch Associates has published both a choropleth and dot map showing where these 274 far-right candidates are standing for office. According to these maps Arizona, Texas and Florida are the states where the most far-right candidates are standing for office.

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