Thursday, December 28, 2017

Where Catalans Want Independence

The results of the latest regional elections in Catalonia show a similar geographical split between urban and rural voters as has been seen in other recent elections around the world. After both the United States Presidential election and the Brexit referendum in the UK many observers noted divergent voting patterns among rural and urban voters. In both these cases poorer, more rural areas showed more support for the anti-establishment candidate or position. The more affluent and urban areas were more likely to vote for what were seen as the establishment candidate or position.

This geographical split in supporting the establishment or anti-establishment position can be seen in the most recent Catalan regional elections. Last week we looked at La Vanguardia's interactive map of the Catalan Regional Election, which shows the political party with the most votes in each municipality. This map revealed that the Pro-Independence parties did best in rural areas of Catalan, while the pro-Unionist parties got their best results in more populated, urban areas.

This urban - rural split for Catalan independence is examined more closely by El Diario. El Diario's Analysis of 21D uses a series of charts, cartograms and maps to examine how support for the pro and anti independence political parties has changed since the last regional elections. It also examines where there is most support for independence in the region and which areas show most support for remaining a part of Spain.

The pro-Unionist parties won the majority of votes in the big cities. While the rural areas in the region showed the most support for independence. However this urban-rural split isn't the only pattern picked up by El Diario's analysis. Perhaps unsurprisingly one of the strongest indicators of a high independence vote in a municipality is the percentage of its inhabitants born in Catalonia. Those municipalities with the most voters born in Catalonia showed the biggest support for independence. Non-Catalan born voters were more likely to vote for pro-Unionist parties and these voters tend to live in the big cities and more urban areas of Catalan.

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