The Global Map of Agricultural Decline

This animated map reveals how agricultural productivity is expected to be affected by climate change around the world throughout this century. It uses the new Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI) to show where and how global heating is likely to alter crop-growing conditions.

According to the Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index, more than 640 million people already live in agricultural regions where food production has fallen by over 10% compared with 30 years ago. Looking ahead, the map suggests these declines will accelerate, with almost half of the world's population expected to be living in areas experiencing reduced agricultural productivity by the middle of the century under a high-emissions scenario.

The CADI Map Explorer allows you to explore how agricultural productivity has already changed this century relative to a 1981–2000 baseline, and how different climate change scenarios are projected to affect productivity over the remainder of the century.

The CADI Map Explorer is based on agronomic models from the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ v5) project, which estimate how changing climate conditions affect the maximum attainable productivity of agricultural land. As an early warning tool, it is intended to support policymakers, researchers, and development agencies in planning for a future where the impacts of climate change on food production are likely to become increasingly uneven.