Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Where Could Coronavirus Hit?

Covid-19 is a virus which has a far more devastating impact on the old than it does on the young. The chances of dying from Covid-19 appear to be around ten times higher for someone over the age of 70 than for someone aged under 60. And the younger you are then the far less likely you are to die from Covid-19.

It is possible for governments and health authorities to use this age related mortality rate to predict where medical demands from Covid-19 are likely to be highest. Areas with the highest proportions of elderly citizens may experience more demand for medical care than other areas. In Social Vulnerability, Age, and Coronavirus Adventures in Mapping has mapped out counties in the United States with the highest proportion of people aged over 60 years old.

The age map (shown above) uses scaled markers to show the proportion of people over 60. It also highlights the 20 counties with the highest proportion of over 60s. The map reveals a number of clusters of counties with elderly populations in Florida, in northern Michigan & Wisconsin and in Colorado.

Adventures in Mapping has also mapped out the most vulnerable counties in the United States based on the CDC's Social Vulnerability Index. The Social Vulnerability Index rates the capability of communities to respond to a disease outbreak (or natural disaster). These ratings are based on such factors as poverty, lack of access to transportation, and crowded housing.

Mapping the Social Vulnerability Index and Proportion of Over 60s on the same map (using Wurman Dots) helps to identify the counties which may be most in need of support during the Covid-19 outbreak. Adventures in Mapping has identified Mohave County, Arizona and Highlands County, Florida as two counties with populations over 100,000 with a Social Vulnerability Index of 0.75 and more than a third of the population being aged over 60.

1 comment:

john.nelson said...

Thanks for sharing this. I've since gotten newer data (2019 population estimates and 2016 social vulnerability index) and used the full set of factors for the social vulnerability index. There are four counties that meet the confluence of risk. Find the new set of maps at this StoryMap. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/557dcd77ad504d5faec7e2c5506c86e0