Tuesday, November 03, 2020

These are the Battleground States

You can take your pick of maps which can show you which states you need to watch out for in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. My pick is the Economist's Forecasting the US Elections map.

Forecasting the US Elections uses a range of polling, economic and demographic data to forecast who is likely to emerge victorious in today's US Election. The Economist's final prediction is that Biden has a 97% chance of winning the electoral college vote. That is a hugely favorable prediction for Biden.

Alongside this forecast of the result the Economist has created an interactive map which highlights which are the battleground states in this election. This map shows the win probability in each state, using colored circles to show which candidate is most likely to win. The size of the circles indicate how many electoral college votes the state has and the strength of the color shows the degree of probability that the state will be won by the predicted candidate.

According to The Economist map Ohio, Georgia and Iowa are the states which are too close to call going into election day. Elsewhere in the article The Economist identifies Pennsylvania and Florida as being two key states in this election. If Biden wins Florida then Trump is likely to be in big trouble. On the other hand if Trump retains Pennsylvania then it is Biden who will probably be most worried.

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