Modeling Crisis Migration Routes

Visual Perspective has developed a model which uses different factors to predict the likely migration routes people might take away from an area in a time of crisis. To explain its model and how the model works Visual Perspective has released an interactive map which provides a demonstration of the model in action in the Yemeni city of Dhama.

In Predicting Migration in Response to Crisis Visual Perspective uses a story map format to demonstrate its migration prediction model. This demonstration starts with a fairly blank map of the region around Dhama. Variables that play a role in the routes that migrates might take to escape a crisis in the city are then added to the map in turn. These include elements such as elevation, roads, administrative boundaries and unstable areas.

When all these layers have been added to the map Visual Perspective runs its model and visualizes the probable migration routes that the model predicts. Visual Perspective also allows users to set their own values to the different variables and see how these changes affect the predicted migration routes on the map. I have no idea about the accuracy of the migration prediction model developed by Visualizing Perspective but this interactive map provides a superb explanation of how the model works.